Tag: GIS

How to change behavior in advocacy campaigns

Strategy

This post is a summary of work and ideas developed for a foundation in Southeastern Pennsylvania while I was employed at Message Agency in 2019. Part of my role was to conduct secondary research on models of behavior change to use in our strategy for engaging the local community.

How does behavior change happen?

One of the most considered questions of philosophy is that of free will. Do you choose how you move through your day? Or is it all predetermined? Or, are others determining things for you? With the amount of external influence on you through media, the internet, and your peers there are endless stimuli able to nudge you in a new direction.

“I’m convinced that ideas and behaviors and new products move through a population very much like a disease does. This isn’t just a metaphor, in other words. I’m talking about a very literal analogy. . . . Ideas can be contagious in exactly the same way that a virus is.”

Malcolm Gladwell, The Tipping Point

Research shows that the information that sticks with us most does not simply hang in the air like a virus. Instead, it is very deliberately passed to us by those we interact with on a regular basis and those we hold in high esteem. In this post I’ll attempt to provide an overview of some evidence-based models related to behavior change and how they can be operationalized in campaigns.

Dr. Damon Centola’s Models for Behavior Change

In his latest book, How Behavior Spreads, Dr. Centola uses a combination of research and narrative to help the reader understand the means by which information leads to behavior change. To illustrate the basic premise of his research Dr. Centola uses the example of Korea in the early 1960s when they were attempting to increase adoption of contraceptives among rural populations. Instead of buying billboards and radio ads, the Korean campaign provided a menu of contraceptive options to each village in the nation. At the local level, Koreans were able to select the methods that they were most comfortable using – not the one pushed on them by a spokesperson. Peer-to-peer discussion of the options led to further adoption by those with overlapping social ties. Eventually Korea surpassed all of its policy goals for the initiative, and the theory of social influence was born. Instead of a network effect of loose ties leading to a “viral diffusion,” it was instead spatial interactions that emerged as the most successful pathways.

While the viral model suggests that radiating networks
of weak ties would lead to successful dissemination, it was instead
overlapping patterns of spatial interaction that were the key to widespread adoption.

Dr. Damon Centola, How Behavior Spreads

Another line of Dr. Centola’s research involves “tipping points” for adoption of behaviors and ideas. Using online chatrooms, Dr. Centola and his team were able to measure how much of a group needed to agree with a non-mainstream idea before more and more of the participants flipped to embrace it. They found that once about 25% of a group have adopted the more extreme view, adoption accelerates among the rest of the group until it reaches a saturation point.

What does this mean for your campaign to change behaviors? It helps to give you a more realistic goal. Imagine a County in your state and how the residents might feel about a certain policy. You might estimate that 20% are strongly in favor, 20% are strongly against, and the other 60% undecided. If you are leading a campaign to get the policy passed in the legislature, you need to increase your number of residents in favor. But by how much? In order to get and keep the momentum, you can target 25% of the undecided population. Once your polling indicates you’ve moved roughly that many residents towards your side, you can be more confident that the tide is truly turning.

How can I leverage spatial patterns in my campaign?

In the case of our campaign in Southeastern Pennsylvania, we relied on what we called an “opportunity map” to help guide our decisions. We used the free Google MyMaps software to build our initial map. Many jurisdictions with Open Data platforms offer file types that are easy to upload directly, which saves time. If you are building your data set manually, it is very easy to add new locations, but cant take quite a bit of time to add everything you’d like to track. This map should include several layers depending on your goals – some we included were non-profit organizations, faith-based organizations, public housing developments, and schools, libraries, and recreation centers.

Once your map is built, you should immediately begin to notice patterns in where the points fall in relation to one another. Remember, space is the key here, so if you see certain points “out on an island”, do some research or engage your community in that area to find out what you might be missing. The goal is to find the clusters of organizations and individuals who might or might not talk to one another because of proximity, and get them to be on the same page and engaged in your work. For example, the librarian and the fire chief might be next door to one another, but not have much need to speak on a regular basis. However, if the county receives a grant that could fund joint public safety work by both groups, you’d find it very valuable that they could be easily brought together in a physical location.

The map can also be used as both a communication and organizing tool. You can share access easily among your peer group, and encourage them to add points to the map they think would be relevant to your goals. It can also be used in organizing to divide responsibility for certain areas of a larger county or city. For example, the Census (in addition to tracts at the micro level) often uses larger divisions to break down counties in the US. These can be valuable in identifying demographic trends, deputizing others to lead outreach efforts, and help limit travel over longer distances for meetings or other activity.

Conclusion

Behavior change doesn’t just happen by having a celebrity record a PSA. The most effective models for change involve social influence, and are driven by overlapping spatial relationships. The “tipping point” means you can more effectively target ambivalent people in your geography. You can use GIS and mapping tools to create a clear picture of your target geography and the assets available to you. Use the map to guide your strategic interventions and gain adoption of your campaign messages.

Smarter Government: Why the best strategy for governing fails

Public Policy, Strategy

What is Smarter Government?

Governor Martin O’Malley wrote Smarter Government in collaboration with ESRI in November 2019 as a capstone on his political experience. In it, Mr. O’Malley outlines his career-long pursuit of more effective government through “Stat” programs. He was initially inspired by Jack Maple and his CompStat program in New York City’s Police Department. Eventually, the two would collaborate on what might soon become known as the single most effective strategy to govern a city or state.

CompStat was a revolutionary idea at the time – it was originally known as Charts of the Future and involved sticking colored pins into a paper map to display data on the intersection of crime and police activity. While it was significantly upgraded in terms of technology, the core tenets remained: timely and accurate information or intelligence, rapid deployment of resources, effective tactics, and relentless follow-up. The result was a major shift in the success of the police department to not only solve but also prevent crime by strategically deploying officers and other resources across the city.

Over the first few chapters, Mr. O’Malley tells the story of working with Mr. Maple to bring CompStat to the city of Baltimore when Mr. O’Malley became Mayor. They called the new system “CitiStat.” There are six main elements of the CitiStat strategy for performance management:

  • Performance management and data-driven processes
  • GIS technology
  • Customer service technology (like a 311 call number for city services)
  • Collaborative, informed decision-making
  • Openness and transparency
  • Getting things done by bringing people together regularly (and optimizing the meeting space and project management process)

Mr. O’Malley’s administration made extremely impressive progress during his time in office – both as Mayor of Baltimore and then as Governor of Maryland. He reduced crime and blight, reduced healthcare costs, and quite possibly saved the Chesapeake Bay Watershed from total destruction. His book includes several contributors, but it is obvious from the language and the content that Mr. O’Malley is a true expert in this area. He now teaches the concepts at Universities in the region, and consults on bringing Stat programs to the Federal Government level and beyond.

Why won’t it work in my city?

If there is a “secret sauce” for effective city and state government, why is this not the standard operating procedure for all public administrators? The truth of the matter is performance management in general, and CitiStat in particular, can be controversial and difficult to implement. Not everyone is on board with showing their peers “how” they work, and getting potentially a dozen departments aligned on a schedule and goals is challenging, which creates significant barriers to entry. I believe that it can work anywhere, but it will only work where an administration can manage these three risks.

Leadership

One thing that becomes clear through Mr. O’Malley’s war stories is his indisputable strength as a leader. This is not a boast or exaggeration by someone telling his own story. By highlighting both his wins and losses, Mr. O’Malley reveals much about the thinking behind his actions. His ability to see the opportunity that CitiStat offered, rally his colleagues to the cause, and consistently participate in the process at the appropriate level made the success of his subordinates possible.

You cannot implement one half or one third of CitiStat – you have to dive in head first and stick with it through your time in office. Not all leaders are prepared to take that plunge, but if they can believe in the fundamental value of the system, it can lead to massive successes.

Capacity

Similar to the leader’s capacity, the administration must have sufficient capacity to establish the processes needed to establish CitiStat. They must be the ones to conduct the meetings, measurement, and implementation of improvements to their service area. To be clear: any administration has the ability to choose CitiStat as a framework for performance management, but not all administrations will succeed in its total adoption.

Mr. O’Malley talks about the crucial first few months of an administration. It is here, he says, that you must move confidently and completely towards CitiStat or else you will miss the opportunity entirely. Without the buy-in and quick action taken to make these changes, too many in the administration will have the built in excuse that changing how we work will reduce velocity.

Ego

The final risk is maybe most existential to the CitiStat methodology. For an incoming administration, it is just the last politician’s shiny object. Any executive entering a political office will be most concerned with their priorities and promises from the campaign trail, as well as their own legacy that they must begin to write.

When Mr. O’Malley left Baltimore, his successor did keep CitiStat in place, but without the same zeal. Gradually the interest and urgency eroded, and eventually there were departments going months without the customary bi-weekly meetings. The succeeding Mayor did not view the CitiStat process as their own, and they did not give it the same attention or resources that they lavished on their own projects. Unfortunately, their ego kept them from embracing a strategy that may have helped them achieve exactly what they were setting out to do.

Conclusion

Despite being a very systematic and data-driven approach to management, CitiStat absolutely needs enthusiastic leadership and shared sense of responsibility to carry out. Many cities use data to make decisions, and some might even have transparency across departments. There are many fewer though that perform the rituals associated with CitiStat that cement it as the overarching framework for how governing gets done.

Cities that want to make CitiStat the standard must ensure that there is a process in place that can make it viable with or without strong executive leadership and that make it more durable than a political project would normally need to be. To achieve this, administrators might consider:

  • Establish a cabinet-level position to manage CitiStat.
  • Create administrative policies, or if possible legislation, requiring Departmental CitiStat meetings to take place regularly.
  • Limit the discussion of or praise for CitiStat in public – the more it is associated with one administration or individual, the less durable it becomes!